THREAT MAP 2018

Your essential guide

13/03/2018

In 2018, organisations around the world must continue to build their capabilities to mitigate and respond to security incidents and remain reactive to world events and security developments. In producing this map, NYA24 have applied our established methodology for assessing threats, combining the latest incident data and analysis with geopolitical expertise. Our assessment shows that for eight countries the security risk rating remains critical, while countries such as Colombia have seen positive developments leading to improved safety and security.

Colombia’s peace accord with FARC rebels has inspired security confidence and paved the way for a positive revision of the country’s security risk rating in some areas. This is in spite of uncertainty surrounding a deal with the country’s second-largest rebel group, the ELN, and border areas remaining at critical level due to dissident rebels from both groups who continue to pose a significant threat.

However, for some entire countries the security risk rating will remain critical. In Afghanistan, the government will struggle to assert its authority, and in Libya well-armed Islamist groups will vie to fill a security vacuum fashioned through years of civil conflict. Similarly, despite the Iraqi military’s success at recovering one third of the country’s territory, both Iraq and Syria remain critical and afflicted with Islamist groups including Islamic State. Yemen continues to suffer from ongoing civil wars which, according to the UN, has the potential to create the largest famine the world has seen for decades. Over the course of 2018, Yemen’s desperate situation will remain tied to political upheaval in Saudi Arabia, where changes by the Crown Prince have served to prolong the conflict.

Across the Gulf of Aden in neighbouring Somalia, Islamist groups will continue to carry out indiscriminate attacks and criminal groups thrive in the same ungovernable conditions seen during the peak of Somali piracy. Last year NYA24 recorded five hijacks in Somali waters, the first successful attacks in the region since 2015. However rather than being an indicator of a resurgence, the incidents are a reminder that international authorities appear unable to address the deep-rooted causes of Somali piracy.

In addition to the security risk rating, in this year’s map we have included a ‘Political Risk’ rating that evaluates the likelihood of politically-motivated disorder, occupation and unrest. Throughout 2018 NYA24 will be closely monitoring world events and stands ready to answer your questions on security developments, trends and concerns.

While this map serves as a useful indicator of security risk around the world, NYA’s global team remains committed to helping you understand the threats to your people, information, property and reputation. In the event of a crisis, our crisis response consultants can provide you with practical advice, options and scenario planning based on tried and tested procedures.

In 2018 we will be further expanding our team, in particular developing our cyber incident prevention and response capabilities and travel risk management services to meet the growing demand from our clients. As always, should you have any questions about this map or would like to discuss how we can help you, please feel free to contact me or my colleagues in New York, London and Singapore.

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